On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena     

V. Choulakian  N. El-Jabi  J. Moussi 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1990,4(3):217-226

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.  相似文献   

黄河流域旱涝年地面热量收支变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

朱超群  高国栋 《应用气象学报》1994,5(3):284-289

根据北京、郑州３年热量平衡观测资料，建立波文（Ｂｏｗｅｎ）比计算模式。并用此模式及辐射计算式等估计黄河流域８年５－８月地面月辐射收支、蒸发耗热、湍流热交换量和土壤热交换量，并比较分析旱涝年它们的差异以及随旱涝（用降水距平表示）的变化。   相似文献   

近百年长江中游旱涝的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

叶愈源  赵文兰 《热带气象学报》1995,11(2):181-186

利用史料和器测雨量记录重建的近百年长江中游区域平均逐年旱涝等级指数序列研究了旱涝变化特征，发现：（１）２０世纪前涝后旱，（２）２２年、５－６年和２－３年的准周期振动，（３）６个交替出现的旱涝阶段。  相似文献   

用CEOF分析近百年中国东部旱涝的分布及其年际变化特征   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

魏凤英  李晓东 《应用气象学报》1995,6(4):454-460

通过1850～1991年旱涝百分率的CEOF分析，研究了近百年来中国东部旱涝的分布特征、时空变化特点及年际演变规律。结果表明，我国东部主要有三种旱涝分布类型。第一种类型是以长江流域为中心全国大范围旱或涝，空间位相近似相同，且有10.7年和3.1年周期性变化，振幅强度在1923～1924年间曾发生过增强突变。第二种类型为南北旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相自北向南变化显著，且有4.3年周期性变化，振幅强度在1884～1885年间曾有一次减弱突变。第三种类型呈江淮流域与华北和华南旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相从南北两个方向向中间或相反方向移动，并有3.4年周期性变化，振幅强度在1911～1912年有过增强突变。  相似文献   

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators     

J. R. Stedinger  L. -H. Lu 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):49-75

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.  相似文献   

Hysteresis‐based flood‐wave analysis using the concept of strain     

Surendra Kumar Mishra  Vijay P. Singh 《水文研究》2001,15(9):1635-1651

Hysteresis represents a loop in a rating curve and is a phenomenon which closely resembles that occurring in stress–strain curves used for studying the elastic properties of solid substances in engineering mechanics. Earlier hysteresis‐based studies used for defining floodwave propagation in open channels have qualitatively shown that hysteresis is an index of energy loss during floodwave propagation. Using the concept of elasticity, this paper introduces a new term called flow strain (defined as the ratio of change in discharge to the initial discharge) for investigating hysteresis. The usefulness of this new term is evaluated with use of four dam‐break studies. The study reveals that:

• 1 flow strain is a function of three wave speeds, Seddon speed, Lagrange speed, and elastic speed;
• 2 a single linear reservoir concept frequently used in flood routing is a specific variant of the Seddon speed formula;
• 3 the non‐linear storage–discharge relationship, widely used in overland flow modelling, is a variant of the kinematic wave representation;
• 4 the discharge ordinates on the recession part of a hydrograph follow a simple first‐order autoregressive form;
• 5 the hysteresis, phase difference and logarithmic decrement all define attenuation and are indices of energy loss during floodwave propagation.

Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

阿尔泰东部新生代火山岩的地球化学特点及构造环境   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王登红  李天德 《大地构造与成矿学》2001,25(3):282-289

新疆三大山系均有新生代火山岩,其中南部西昆仑、阿尔金山及天山托云等地的新生代火山岩比较发育,在新疆东北部地区的阿尔泰哈拉乔拉一带也发育新生代的陆内喷发火山岩。这套火山岩虽然面积不是很大,但具有大陆溢流玄武岩的特点。在地球化学上也具有典型热点成因洋岛玄武岩或其它地幔柱成因玄武岩的特点,如TiO2含量高大于2%、轻稀土元素和不相容元素显著富集等。表明新疆北部特别是阿尔泰造山带东部演化到新生代以后,有向裂陷拉张方向演化的趋势,标志着一个新的大地构造演化阶段的到来。  相似文献   

我国低纬高原地区初夏强降水天气研究II·2005与2001年5月云南旱涝成因的对比分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

董海萍  赵思雄  曾庆存 《气候与环境研究》2005,(3)

2001年和2005年的5月云南分别出现了严重的洪涝和干旱天气。通过分析研究表明,这两年在大尺度环流形势、季风爆发的早晚和强弱以及ENSO背景的影响等方面都有着显著的不同。2001年5月对流层中层的东亚槽位置偏西且强度偏强,同时南支槽稳定维持且较强,致使冷暖空气易于在云南地区交汇,这可能是在该地区产生较强降水的主要环流形势,而2005年5月东亚槽位置偏东,南支槽较弱,致使云南地区几乎没有水汽来源和缺乏冷暖空气的交汇,这是产生干旱的主要环流形势;同时南海季风爆发的早晚和强弱与云南5月降水也有着较好的关系,2001年5月南海季风爆发偏早且强度偏强,而2005年5月南海季风爆发偏晚且强度偏弱,这两年5月的降水差异较大;对水汽分布的分析还表明,2001年5月云南地区为水汽辐合区,且较常年平均偏大,水汽通量为西南向,且强度较强。而2005年5月云南为水汽辐散区,孟加拉湾的水汽向东进入南海,云南地区非常干燥;从ENSO大背景对其影响的分析可知,2001年5月的洪涝和2005年5月的干旱与这两年的前期海温变化似乎也存在一定的联系。  相似文献   

Farmers＇ vulnerability to flood risk： A case study in the Poyang Lake Region   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

MA Dingguo CHEN Jie ZHANG Wenjiang ZHENG Lin LIU Ying 《地理学报(英文版)》2007,17(3):269-284

This paper quantitatively explores farmers＇ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region （PLR） with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and characteristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model （DEM） derived from the 1：50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are： rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices （as GIS data layers） were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coefficient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers＇ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the ＂five rivers＂.  相似文献   

Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Clare Johnson  Edmund Penning-Rowsell  Sue Tapsell 《Area》2007,39(2):214-223

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.  相似文献